Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Rate Watch 10/28/08: Locking

Stocks rallied early with the Fed beginning its 2 day FOMC Meeting and with anticipation of a .5% rate cut to be announced tomorrow afternoon.

This rally was cut short, however, when Consumer Confidence came in at 38 vs. an expectation of 52, the lowest in 41 years! Bonds are not yet getting a bump in price from this unfavorable report (higher price, lower yield, lower mortgage rates) and Bonds are actually moving lower, now below 4 levels of support, toward the worse pricing of the year (October 15th).

Yesterday, I looked at the Bond Charts and found the worst worst bond prices of the year-and highest rates of the year- were on October 15th, August 7th, July 18th, June 16th and March 6th). Interestingly, the best bond prices and best interest rates this year were on September 5th, May 9th, April 9th, March 18th, and January 18th.

The most recent cycle from best to worst rates has taken approximately 6 weeks and this is the volatility I have been speaking about in my rate watch comments!

For now, I recommend Locking, but the market can change very quickly (as briefly outlined above) and I will keep you posted of market movement.

In Real Estate news released today, the Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell for the 15th consecutive month, down 16.6% from a year earlier.

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