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Thursday, November 27, 2008

Chris Clark and Megan Dewey Closing

Wade Clark, Real Estate Concepts, 801-645-2218, Megan Dewey and Chris Clark, and Marty Qualls at First American Title, Closing on November 26, 2008.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Rate Watch: Carefully Floating

The Squeeze Play is ON! The falling trend line I have been tracking for the past 4 days is now in a triangle formation with the 200 day moving average and current Bond Prices. For today, after my alert to lock yesterday at midday, I am recommending Floating as we see how the Bond Chart Pricing struggle continues to form. Bonds will break our from this formation one way or the other, up or down, rather than stay at the 200 day moving average which is where Bonds have been touching for the past 14 business trading days.

After the past few days of significant losses, Stocks are attempting to recover and Bonds will be taking direction from Stocks and from the triangle pricing struggle mentioned above.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Rate Watch 11/20/08: Float to Lock

Bonds started out better this morning, but worsened, and at 1:00 I issued an alert to Lock Advice. Bonds continue to touch the 200 day moving average for the 13th consecutive day.

HERE is the BIG news of the day! The October Fed Meeting Minutes were released yesterday. The Fed has expressed concern about deflation. The "D" word.

Deflation is when prices drop, mainly due to decreases in money supply and credit. In a deflationary environment, investors flee into fixed instruments, like Bonds. Going back to the Spring of 2003, Alan Greenspan uttered the "D" word. Mortgage Bonds rallied 400 basis points in a couple of weeks, setting off an unprecedented refi-boom.

It will take investors waking up to the bargain value of Mortgage Bonds for the rally to begin. I want to let everyone know that we may be on the verge of the refi Boom which I know you have been waiting for. Things are MUCH different now than they were in 2003, but I am watching this VERY closely!

Prices have barely peaked above the 200 day moving average. And here is a quick reminder about 2003: When Alan Greenspan came back and later said there is NO threat of deflation-the refi-boom ended Qucikly and rates shot up dramatically (1% higher in 4 days-I was there, I lived it, I saw it!). Stay tuned, we are living history again!

Be ready for my call to you to alert you on dramatic drops in rates to take advantage of!

When it happens, we may have a SMALL window of opportunity to take advantage of!

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Rate Watch 11/19/08: Floating

Bonds continue to trade at, just slightly below, and just slightly above the 200 day moving average for the 11th straight day. For now, I recommend floating to see which way the market breaks and will alwert you when this happens.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Rate Watch 11/18/08: Carefully Floating

Bond Prices are continuing to trade at the 200 day moving average for the 10th trading session. I am watching for a break above or below this level and will let you know when this happens. A move upward would signal lower mortgage rates, but if we drop convincingly below this level, we could see a wild sell off as we have experienced many times this year.

For now, Stocks are reacting favorably to the Hewlett Packard announcement that they are beating income projections for the 4th quarter and for the year. Finally, some good news from a big name company!

Overall inflation on the Wholesale level was released and the decrease was the largest since records started to be kept in 1947 (this was helped by the 25% decline in oil prices). This is good news for Bonds, which hates inflation. I will keep you posted as to the movement in the markets!

Monday, November 17, 2008

Rate Watch 11/17/08: Floating

For the 9th trading session, Bond prices are dancing around the 200 day moving average. With the release of many key reports on inflation (tomorrow), and economic activity (today and tomorrow), I will be watching the market closely for movement above and below this important ceiling of support .

Bond Chart Education Moment: When the 200 day moving average is above current pricing, it is a CEILING. As the Bond prices convincingly break above (through) this level of resistance, we will see improved Bond prices and LOWER bond yields and LOWER Mortgage Rates. Of course, the opposite also holds true: a break convincingly BELOW this 200 day average will result in HIGHER mortgage rates (Bond prices LOWER, Yield HIGHER and Mortgage Rates HIGHER).

The bond movement at, above, and below, the 200 day moving average is what I will be watching for, and giving you advice on, over this next 2-3 days.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Realtor Thank You

"Marty and his staff did an exceptional job in completing this loan from qualifying to funding (for an FHA payoff) in record time. I appreciate the great service!" Judy Webber

Realtor Thank You

"Marty, as usual, you did an awesome job!" Don and Bernice Sitton

Realtor Thank You

"I really appreciate the fact you stay in touch and communicate what is happening during the process! Thanks a Million!" Marilyn Olson

Buyer Thank You

"Marty is the Best! Highest ratings on every aspect of getting a loan with Marty and especially loved the over the top personalized service!" Craig and Heidi Hansen, LN#992604

Buyer Thank You

"Marty was VERY helpful and friendly! Everyone was great to work with and we will recommend them to all of our friends! Marty and the Realtor, Gail Parsons, were very impressive!" Dave and Lilibeth Hess, LN#993004

Buyer Thank You

"Marty was Friendly and Always kept us informed! We did meet our closing date and Marty kep us informed on the status of our loan!" Mauel DelRio and Leticia Saucedo LN#992804

Buyer Thank You

"We would of course recommend you to others! Great Service and great people to work with!" Owen and Lisa Thompson, Ln#991705

Buyer Thank You

"We closed in record time! Marty was friendly and went out of his way to make sure our loan closed on time; kept us informed and up to date; made us feel good! :)" Steven and Danielle Franks

Friday, November 14, 2008

Rate Watch 11/14/08: Carefully Floating

After 4 days of positive Bond price movement (remember, price up, yeild down and Mortgage rates down), and after a good start yesterday, my floating recommendation changed to a lock recommendation yesterday at 1 p.m.. Today's stock and Bond movement could be the same as yesterdays. Stocks started poorly yesterday, only to recound and close 500 points better (a 800 point swing!). Decades worse readings on Retail Sales, and profit revisions downward by retailers every single day, still didn't dampen consumer's as much as would be expected, as a better than expected Consumer Confidence report was released today. For now, I am watching Bond Prices closely, currently just below the 200 day moving average, and will alert you if there is a change in direction.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Rate Watch 11/12/08: Carefully Floating

Bonds are battling resistance overhead as the stock market stumbles slightly this morning. Adding to the softness in Stocks, Best Buy has lowered their earnings on the heels of Circuit City's Chapter 11 Bankruptcy yesterday.

A Treasury Auction this afternoon of $20B in 10 year notes will determine the direction of Bonds over the next 2 weeks. If the the Auction is received poorly, it could put pressure on Bond prices, and with the levels of support just below where we are now, there is a huge drop below those levels and I would change my Float recommendation to Lock. I will keep you posted.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

2009 Conventional Conforming Loan Limits Announced

The 2009 Conforming Loan Limits Show No Change From 2008, 2007 or 2006. Loan Limits remain at $417,000 for the 4th consecutive year for single family homes.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Rate Watch: Carefully Floating

Bonds are testing resistance at the 50 and 20 day moving average overhead as Stocks rallied this morning on the heels of a Stock rally in China after they announced plans of a $586 Billion bailout plan (similar to the U.S.'s $700B bailout plan).

Stocks have not maintained the rally as the day progressed, ahead of an early closing (the Bond market is now closed and will be closed tomorrow for Veterans Day) as Circuit City announced that it is filing for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy and Nordstrom's announced 16% less growth (10% below their previous announcement).

I am recommending carefully floating as we continue to test resistance overhead. The shape of Bond prices, bond yields and Mortgage Interest Rates for the next two weeks will be determined by the movement in the Stock Market, which I will be watching very carefully for you!

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Rob and Shannon Thurgood Closing

Rob, Emily, and Shannon Thurgood and Marty Qualls. Closing at Inwest Title with Toni George and Sandi Cope, Escrow Officers on November 7, 2008.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Rate Watch 11/7/08: Floating

The Labor Department Jobs report was far worse than expected and unemployment is at the highest level since 1994. Stocks are coming off their worst back to back days since the 1987 Stock Market Crash.

The dismal jobs report, the higher unemplyment report and the poor stock market are all helping Bonds this morning.

Even though there is a small improvement in Bond prices this morning, I am recommending floating as the weakness in the Equity market starts to sink in as the day goes on.

Bond Prices are battling a strong ceiling of resistance, but the future of Bonds could be bullish as the prices break through the ceiling above.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Rate Watch 11/6/08: Floating

Bond prices are down slightly this morning (Bond prices down, Yield UP, Mortgage rates UP), with the release of positive economic news ahead of tomorrows job report. The jobs report tomorrow is expected to be dismal and since we are still currently above 2 of the 3 levels of support, I am recommending floating into tomorrows job report. If things change, I will alert you.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Rate Watch 11/5/08: Floating

We are now in the 4th day of a float recommendation and have enjoyed a 191 basis point price improvement in the last 4 trading days! With more abysmal news in the economy arriving both internationally and in the U.S, I recommend floating for now as we have established the 200 day moving average as the new floor of support.

As we meet the rate watch targets which you and I have established as a good time to explore your refinance opportunities, I will be sending e-mail alerts to you.

Please call or e-mail me when you receive these e-mails and we can talk about the details of your refinance benefits!

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election Day 11/4/08 Rate Watch: Carefully Floating

With Election Day finally here, Bonds will be taking their direction in price from the Stock market today in the absence of any financial reports to be released. International stocks did well overnight and Stocks here are up slightly with Bonds also up nicely since opening this morning. For now, it is prudent to carefully float and I will let you know if there is a change in this direction.

Good news from my Son this morning is that his wait was 5 minutes at his polling place! I voted early, so I hope my 40 minute wait made short lines for everyone today! :)

Monday, November 3, 2008

Rate Watch 11/03/08: Floating with finger on Lock Trigger

The bond prices over the past 5 trading days indicates that traders are indecisive about the direction of the economy. Bond prices remain above an important level of support which could be tested. I will watch closely at the stock and bond movement today and will alert you if there is a need to lock.

I have posted National Overnight Average Mortgage Rates in a seperate Blog post today whick shows today's rates at approximately .125% higher today than they were 2 weeks ago.

See also my Blog Post for the Rate Trend Index where a slight majority of Bond Trading Experts predict rates will be increasing over the next 30-45 days.

Rate Trend Index 11/3/08

Oct. 30 - Nov. 3

This week, almost half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 38 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).


Down: 38%

Mortgage Rates 11/03/08


Conventional Loan: These averages include 1.75% discount point, origination fee of $795, $400 appraisal, Title Fees, assumes 20% equity, Loan size of $160,000, Credit Score of 720.

FHA Loan: .35% higher in rate, 1.375% discount point, $795 origination fee, $150,000 Loan size, 600 credit score (minimum credit score 580 at higher disocunt points or rate), 3% equity, $400 Appraisal, Title Fees


30 yr fixed mtg

15 yr fixed mtg

5/1 ARM

Friday, October 31, 2008

Tax Credit Update for First Time Homebuyers

I have received information from Utah Housing that if a buyer utilizes Utah Housing (either the First Home or the First Home Plus), that they cannot ALSO do the $7500 tax credit! It is either one OR the other, but not both.

After receiving this information from Utah Housing, I called and they explained to me that it has to do with the tax relief status of how Utah Housing receives the money through their arrangement with IRS that this is called 'double dipping' if the buyers use both the Utah housing AND the tax credit.

We will need to do analysis on the buyer's individual situation to find out which direction benefits them the most: ie) using Utah Housing or using the tax credit.

Rate Watch 10/31/08: Floating to Locking

Just like yesterday, Bonds received good news when the market opened up and as the morning progressed, prices have worsened. While I recommended floating for the first two hours, I have now issued an alert to lock, as prices are off 31 basis points and lenders are in a position to reprice for the worse.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Rate Watch 10/30/08: Floating

The 3rd Quarter Advance consumer spending report came in today at the fastest decline in 28 years, and the 3rd quarter GDP report decline indicates we are heading toward the "textbook" definition of a recession which is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.

Both reports have softened the stock market and we have a level of support in the Bond Market that prices are currently hovering above.

With the Fed Funds rate cut of .5% yesterday, and a somewhat coordinated effort with other international cuts, have helped buoy the dollar against foreign currencies, helped oil futures from spiking, and is helping Bond Prices (overall).

So for now, I recommend floating, as we watch to see how this most recent rate cut is handled in the financial markets.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Rate Watch 10/29/08: Floating to Locking

The day started with Bonds trading slightly higher with stocks also slightly higher in response to the anticipated Fed Funds rate decrease this afternoon.

As reported in days past rate watches, Bonds are anticipated to react unfavorably to the rate cut and this was in fact how the day played out.

When the Fed announced the cut, Bonds began trading at their lowest level of the day, and the floating bias changed to an alert to lock as investors were at a point they would consider a reprice for the worse.

For now, we will watch to see how positive this information is received in the equity market (stocks) and how it effects Bonds, Mortgage Backed Securities and the Treasury Market (safe haven for money).

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Jesse Rowe and Jessica Hollis-Closing 10/28/08

Marlene Lewellyn-REMAX Realty Group (cell 801-388-8489), Jesse Rowe, Jessica Hollis and Marty Qualls. Closing at Backman Title Services with Robyn Archibald, Escrow Officer
Buyer Thank You:

"My fiance and I are the proud new owners of our very first home. We were referred to Marty by our real estate agent, Marlene Lewellyn at Remax Realtors.
Marty and his team got us into our home in less than month!! They were really helpful and always let us know what we needed to do and helped us get it done so that we could close.
I would recommend Marty and his team to anyone looking to get into their first home or into a newer, better, house!
Thanks Marty for everything, you guys are great!!
Jess and Jess

Rate Watch 10/28/08: Locking

Stocks rallied early with the Fed beginning its 2 day FOMC Meeting and with anticipation of a .5% rate cut to be announced tomorrow afternoon.

This rally was cut short, however, when Consumer Confidence came in at 38 vs. an expectation of 52, the lowest in 41 years! Bonds are not yet getting a bump in price from this unfavorable report (higher price, lower yield, lower mortgage rates) and Bonds are actually moving lower, now below 4 levels of support, toward the worse pricing of the year (October 15th).

Yesterday, I looked at the Bond Charts and found the worst worst bond prices of the year-and highest rates of the year- were on October 15th, August 7th, July 18th, June 16th and March 6th). Interestingly, the best bond prices and best interest rates this year were on September 5th, May 9th, April 9th, March 18th, and January 18th.

The most recent cycle from best to worst rates has taken approximately 6 weeks and this is the volatility I have been speaking about in my rate watch comments!

For now, I recommend Locking, but the market can change very quickly (as briefly outlined above) and I will keep you posted of market movement.

In Real Estate news released today, the Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell for the 15th consecutive month, down 16.6% from a year earlier.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Rate Watch 10/27/08: Locking

There have been wild swings overnight in the international Stock and Bond Market over concerns of global recession.

This week is FULL of economic reports due to be released, but I will focus on the Federal Reserve meeting this Wednesday at 2:15 p.m ET. There is a high probability of the Fed lowering the discount rate .5% and there are rumors of possibly a .75% decrease. At their last meeting there was a 100% chance in the Bond market futures that the Fed would lower the rate by .50%, and as you might remember, the Fed DIDN'T lower the rate.

Really, regardless of whether the Fed lowers or doesn't lower the Fed Rate, the Bond market reacts negatively to the move and Bond prices have suffered. For this reason, I recommend Locking and will let you know if things change.

Housing news released today: New home sales were up by 2.7% and inventory is the lowest in 4 years and the average new home sales price is $218,400, down 9.1% in the past year.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Rate Watch 10/24/08: Locking

Good economic news in the market is not helping Bonds this morning. With the good news, Stocks are still suffering here and especially suffering internationally and specifically in Japan where profits for major companies have been announced and profits are off.

Existing Home sales here were reported at a 5.50% increase over last month and at their best levels in 13 months. Oil is down again today to $64 per barrel, and just like when the dollar was weak and we saw $146 per barrel oil, the dollar is gaining strengh against foreign currencies and oil prices are dropping. As you have heard before in my Rate Watch, lower oil is good for bonds (lower inflation).

For now, on the technical side, since we have now gone below the important 200 day moving average, I am recommending Locking as we continue to see Bond prices erode since yesterdays alert to lock and prices again opened lower this morning.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Rate Watch 10/23/08: Floating

This morning Bond prices were bouncing around as Stocks traded within a 552 point swing. My recommendation this morning was to Float and by 2:41 MST I called for an alert to lock with the Bond market worse by 38 basis points since rate sheets came out.

We are seeing a Bearish Morning Star Pattern forming in the Bond Charts and Volatility in the Bond market has returned after several really good, somewhat predictable, days in the Stock and Bond Market. The Floor of support is the 200 day moving average, which as you might remember, I was VERY excited about breaking through on the way up in Bond Prices.

We ended the day at 101.41, right at the 200 day moving average of 101.42. We had a 38 point loss in the Bond Market today and Bonds will be hoping for more bond friendly news like we got today to help: Jobless claims were higher, highest in 5 years and jobs lost in the Securities Industry with Goldman Sachs announcing 2300 layoffs today not at a total of 125,000 jobs lost.

Most money now being created with Stock selling is being parked in US Treasuries, rather than Mortgage Backed Securities. The recent boost we received in Bond prices was because PIMCO, the largest MBS investor in the world, renewed their interest in MBS for the past two days. They still have this interest in MBS, so I am not too concerned that the Bond prices will suffer, but there are some technical head winds ahead and I will watch closely and advise you of the direction of rates.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Realtor Thank You

"Marty is awesome to work with. He is very honest and organized. Marty is always on top of the transaction and I've never worried about deadlines being met. My clients felt very comfortable working with him and he got them the best deal! He has a lot of experience and it shows. I highly recommend him to anyone looking for a top notch loan officer." Rachael Elliott-Utah Select Realty, Cell 801-898-2358 (Austin is Realtor partner and husband)

Realtor Thank You

"Thanks Marty for going beyond the call of duty to get the financing in place for Myka's first home. Everything went so smoothly. Also, thanks to Misti and Sheri for all your extra work. You are true professionals!!" Ava Felt-Associate Broker-REMAX Realty Group., Cell: (801) 668-1484

Rate Watch 10/21/08: Carefully Floating

Bond Prices are testing multi month highs after yesterdays strong rally where we saw prices move higher through the 25, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Today we are seeing Stocks take a breather, after a 400 point increase yesterday, as sour earnings reports for 3 major companies are released. For now, I recommend carefully floating as we continue to hover above the 4 floors of support, which were the ceilings we needed to break through yesterday! Yesterday was a very good day for Bonds!

Monday, October 20, 2008

Rate Watch 10/20/08: Floating

Bonds prices are improving nicely this morning with no economic reports out today and with Ben Bernanke's meeting with the House Finance Committee this morning. While there is still inherent volatility in the markets, there may be a sense that the financial moves the Government has taken with the financial rescue package may be beginning to work. For now, I recommend Floating as we watch to see how far the Bond Price recovery goes today.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"Marty is awesome! Excellent personalized service! I totally trust his opinion and feel he is there to help me and my situtuation!" Elizabeth G., Loan#992405

Buyer Thank You

"I had someone else helping us for over a month and couldn't get it done. Marty got it done in a week! Marty, thanks for all your help!" Clint and Liz T., Loan# 991606

Buyer Thank You

"Marty did an excellent job of simplifying the loan process and explaining the entire loan process to me. Expert processing! This experience was better than previous loan experiences I have had before and I will recommend him to others!" Carolyn W., Loan#991606

Buyer Thank You

"Keep up the great work! Way above excellent in meeting our closing date, keeping us informed of the status of our loan and the personalized service!" Stewart and Jill D., Loan#992805

Myka, Mac and Ava Felt

Mac, Ava Felt-RE/MAX Associated Realtors, Myka Felt and Marty Qualls at Myka's closing on October 16, 2008. Eric Rose, First American Title, Escrow Officer.

Realtor Thank You:

"Thanks Marty for going beyond the call of duty to get the financing in place for Myka's first home. Everything went so smoothly. Also, thanks to Misti and Sheri for all your extra work. You are true professionals!!" Ava Felt-Associate Broker- REMAX Realty Group, Cell: (801) 668-1484

Denny and Brittney Green

Austin Elliott-Utah Select Realty, Brittney and Denny Green, Marty Qualls, closing with Escrow Officer Tyler Johnson at Inwest Title on October 8, 2008.

Buyer Thank You:

"Marty, thanks for your help! We feel like you have worked hard for us, and helped us get a great interest rate. thank you for your advice, and for helping us understand how the mortgage world operates. We look forward to working with you in the future!" Denny and Brittney Green, Loan#080810

Realtor Thank You:

"Marty is awesome to work with. He is very honest and organized. Marty is always on top of the transaction and I've never worried about deadlines being met. My clients felt very comfortable working with him and he got them the best deal! He has a lot of experience and it shows. I highly recommend him to anyone looking for a top notch loan officer." Rachael Elliott-Utah Select Realty, Cell 801-898-2358 (Austin is Realtor partner and husband)

Friday, October 17, 2008

Rate Trend Index: 10/17/08

Oct. 16 - Oct. 22, 2008

This week, a little more than half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will fall over the next 35 to 45 days. About one-quarter think rates will rise, and a fifth believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).


Down: 53%

Mortgage Rates 10/17/08: National Overnight Averages


Conventional Loan: These averages include 1.75% discount point, origination fee of $795, $400 appraisal, Title Fees, assumes 20% equity, Loan size of $160,000, Credit Score of 720.

FHA Loan: .35% higher in rate, 1.375% discount point, $795 origination fee, $150,000 Loan size, 600 credit score (minimum credit score 580 at higher disocunt points or rate), 3% equity, $400 Appraisal, Title Fees

30 yr fixed mtg

15 yr fixed mtg

5/1 ARM

Rate Watch 10/16 and 10/17/08: Floating

Yesterday and today were good for bonds! The volatility continues in the stock market and Bonds have caught a break as a result. Bond friendly reports on inflation, worse than expected new housing starts, and downward revised profit estimates, have all helped Bonds this past few days. For now, waiting for all of the economic help from the Government to get into place and to start working is the best advice I can give right now. We will continue to see volatility in Stocks and Bonds, but sooner than later we will begin to see improving rates.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Investment Property update

I received this update from my Processing and Underwriting team today:

FYI: Mortgage Insurance companies are pulling their MI options for investment properties. They predict this to be ‘short term’ and ‘due to market conditions’….but be aware that investment properties are at 80% ltv max currently.

Rate Watch 10/15/08: Floating

It's hard to believe what is going on the Stock and Bond market right now and the old flow of money from Stocks to Bonds isn't happening. This morning is as close to "normal" as I have seen for weeks. Stocks are off 400 points and for now, we are FINALLY getting some price increases in the Bond Market as patterns forming within the Bond Charts are providing a level of support. As quickly as things change, and Bernanke is talking this afternoon, I will provide you information immediately if the direction changes!

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"Marty is very knowledgeable about the mortgage business. I found Marty to be very customer service oriented and detailed in the process of refinancing a house. I would highly recommend Marty for any future business dealings." Angie Salcedo, Loan#072012

Monday, October 13, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"It was a delight to work with Marty when we purchased our new home. We asked our realtor for a referral to help us with our mortgage - we were referred to Marty (and we are so glad we were). Marty took time to understand what our needs were. He performed different scenarios based on different mortgage products. He talked about the time it took to breakeven to buy down points. It was extremely helpful! Marty's rates were so much better than competitors. We were treated like gold. I would absolutely recommend Marty to help anyone refinance or purchase a new home. Wonderful experience!" Niels and Tara Hansen, Loan#071212

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"Marty, just wanted to thank you again for all you did in helping us get our daughters into the home we were able to purchase as our "Investment Property". Your can-do attitude is to be emmulated by all in your industry. We depended on you, in spite of not even knowing you at the time, and you came through like a champ. Once again, you are an inspiration to Loan Officers around the globe. Charge on and keep impressing your customers, you will go far, there is a special place in Heaven for people of your caliber." Sincerely, Tony and Pam Martinez, Loan#081205

Stocks: Bear Market Basics

After learning more about what a Bear Market is and how it may effect the recovery of the Bond Market, I wanted to share what I learned today.

A Bear Market "Correction" is when there is a 10% decline in the S&P 500 stock value and a Bear Market Decline is when there is a 20% decline in value.

The last Bear Market was from 3/24/2000 to 10/09/02 and there was a 49% drop in Stock value. During the last Bear market we had to deal with terrorism and the attacks on the U.S., and the dot com bubble bursting.

The average Bear Market lasts for 12.3 months, with an average decline in Stock value of 32%.

This Brutal Bear Market began 10/09/07 (yes 10/09!) and as of yesterday is now 1 year old. Stocks have declined a staggering 41%.

Many analysts and market observers are saying that this Bear Market is different because we are dealing with liquidity issues in the marketplace and non performing mortgages. Yes, this is a new problem we are facing, but it's always something new, just like the dot com situation and terrorism attacks on U.S. soil hadn't been seen before the last Bear Market.

It helped me to put things into perspective: This Bear market is worse than average, but not as severe (41% vs. 49% value decline), nor as long lasting (12 months vs. 30 months). Hang in there! It WILL get better!

Friday, October 10, 2008

Rate Watch 10/10/08: Lock

"You buy when there's blood in the streets." Baron Rothschild. You should buy stocks when there is maximum pessimism, and we may be approaching, or may have reached that point already. And as for the day, stocks opened up 700 points lower than the close yesterday, recovered completely and at this writing, are down 328 points.

And what about Bonds? Well, they are not faring any better, either. They opened off 59 basis points, and are now trading off 91 bps. Bonds are down heavily and we are in for another mid day rate reprice for the worse. The market closes at Noon MST and will be closed Monday for Columbus Day. My next Rate Watch report will be on Tuesday, 10/14/08.

For the short term, I am recommending Locking. Because there is a floor of support in the Bond Charts at the 100 day moving average (we have already fallen below the 50 and 200 day moving average), we may be seeing the worst Bond Prices, but I am recommending locking just in case we continue to fall.

P.S. In a seperate BLOG Post, I am writing more details on the Stock Market and the Brutal Bear Market we are in. VERY interesting research and findings this morning that I look forward to sharing with you!

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

"YOU Magazine" Testimonial


I sometimes get so busy that some of the blogs and other emails I get from you are too complicated for me to look @ quickly. I wanted to give you feedback about the one below that you just sent to me. I LOVE IT. It is easy to read, has interesting articles for everyone.


Rate Watch 10/7/08: Cautiously Floating to Lock Bias

Stocks are trying to stabilize today after the largest point swing in history yesterday. This morning, Bond prices have already been all over the place, but as long as prices remain above the 25 day moving average at close today, I recommend floating. In good news for stability and confidence in the stock market, the Fed and Treasury Department will begin to purchase short term commercial paper from businesses to meet their short term capital needs. I will continue to monitor the situation and a lock bias will be prudent if Bond Prices close lower than the 25 day moving average. Rumors are surfacing this morning that the Fed will make an emergency cut in the Fed funds rate, but remember, Bonds have not liked this Fed action in the past 4 rate cuts because it is viewed as inflationary. If there is an emergency cut, be ready for increased volatility in Stocks and Bonds.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Rate Watch 10/6/08: Floating

Stock markets world wide are in negative territory overnight as the $700 Billion bailout plan is looked at as less than a cure all to the financial problems in the United States. As I have mentioned before, the bailout will help us to recover in 12-18 months, as compared to a recovery in 4-5 years without it. Financial markets are in a mess, with or without the Bailout package. Bonds are benefiting from the movement of money out of the stock market into Bonds. Currently, Stocks are currently off 350 points. The Federal Reserve Bank is pumping liquidity into the market (one of the biggest problems our loan world is experiencing) with their Term Auction Facility, doubling the amount available from $450 to $900 Billion. If there could be a Rate Cut Coordination with other World Banks, we could see some bigger benefit in the mortgage market. As it stands right now, bonds are showing a 84% chance that the Fed will lower the Fed Funds rate by .5% when they meet on 10/29. Remember last month, there was a 100% prediction in the market that the Fed was going to lower the discount rate and they held the rate the same! So much for trying to predict the Fed moves, right?! On the technical side, the 25 day moving average is a solid floor below and the overhead resistance is at 101.31 (current 5.50% trading at 100.88). For now I recommend floating as we watch to see if we can get some additional improvement in the Bond Market.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Rate Watch 10/2/08: Floating into jobs report

Bonds opened in positive territory this morning as the Senate passed the Bailout Plan with a solid majority at 74-25. This version of the bill has some additional things attached to it that looks to make it more palitable to the House as it now goes back to them. The Bill now includes:

  • $150B in tax breaks for individuals and businesses
  • FDIC insurance increased to $250,000 from $100,000
  • and insurers required to treat mental health illness like general health problems (we all knew that there would be hitchhikers on the bill to get it to pass, right?)

Even as the bill passes the Senate and now goes back to the House, where with the atttachments to the bill, approval of the bill is more probable, the reality in the markets is that whether the bailout package passes the House or not (which will be voting tomorrow or as late as Friday), that the economy is still in a mess! (Remember, bad economic news is typically good for bonds, because there is a flight FROM stocks-with the ailing economy-TO bonds-where it is safer and more secure.)

There continues to be weakness in the labor market. The Initial Jobless Claims report was released at 497,000 claims, the most in 7 years. This negative report, coupled with the strong floor of support below Bonds at the 200 day moving average, and easing oil prices-now at 94.88 (down $3.00 from yesterday), and a weaker Stock market (off 263 at 9:24 a.m.), I am recommending floating into the jobs report tomorrow.

With all of the volatility in the markets lately, I will be watching very closely for changes in direction.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Rate Watch 9/29/08: Carefully Floating

Today, with all eyes on the House of Representatives and their vote on the Economic Rescue Package, the Bond Market traded in a WILD range of 128 bps! Stocks had their worst one day drop in 20 years and Bonds and Treasuries both received a boost from the carnage! Because the day started with a Carefully Floating recommendation, and the market was so wild today, I am posting to my Blog at the end of the day to report that the market it slightly better than where it started this morning. The Senate will have a shot at the Rescue Package on Wednesday. Until then, we can only stand by and watch this roller coaster of economic movement. I will be watching closely for any change in direction.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"Friendly! Most of all, I liked how I was kept informed, especially since I was in Sacramento. Marty and his processor did a WONDERFUL JOB!!! JOB WAS WELL DONE BY ALL!!! I couldn't have has a better team to help me out!! Thank you so much!!" Donna H., Loan#10548-992605

Buyer Thank You

"I liked everything about the loan process I experienced with Marty!" Larry and Marilyn H., Loan#12666-992906

Buyer Thank You

"When we called Marty and told him we found the house we wanted to buy, he had us in his office the next morning. We were impressed! We have never been treated so well by a company before. Marty was so helpful and nice to us. Keep up the good work!" Anthony and Diane O., Loan#12485-992805

Buyer Thank You

"Excellent job on every aspect of the Loan processing and closing when it needed to close!" Royce and Lillian P., Loan#13403-990107

Buyer Thank You

"Great personalized service! Excellent job in meeting the purchase contract closing date." Guy C., Loan# 13750-992907

Friday, September 26, 2008

Rate Watch 9/26/08: Carefully Floating

Liquidity is gone in the financial markets as Banks are not even lending to each other within the Federal Reserve System. All eyes are on the newly named "TARP", Troubled Asset Relief Program (the $700 Billion Bailout Program currently before Congress). You heard TARP from me first! Banks are failing, but immediate arrangements are made to keep depositors money safe and prevent a FDIC Insurance claim and payment. Washington Mutual's assets were purchased this morning by Chase, and Citi is in talks to take over Wachovia. Oil is down $2.14 to $104.83, the Dow is up 121 and bonds were flat and trading in a consolidating, sideways pattern for the past 3 days. Bonds and stocks are not making a move one way or the other until TARP is announced. The vote in Congress should be tomorrow (Saturday) and the announcement, as has been the pattern for the last 3 major financial announcements, on Sunday, September 28th. On the technical side, bonds continue to trade just above two levels of support of the 25 day and the 200 day moving average. For today, and for the past 3 days, I have recommended carefully floating while we wait on the sidelines to see what the decision is regarding the financial bailout package.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Manufactured Housing Financing update 9/25/08: Still have financing!

Clarification from my Underwriting Team today (which updates and corrects the update posted yesterday):

Okay….HUGE confusion on Manufactured homes!! Guidelines were changed regarding DAP’s (Down Assistance Programs) with Manufactured homes and the way that the new guidelines were rolled out, they led everyone to believe that Manufactured Homes went away (NOT surprising assumption in this market!!) HOWEVER, the guidelines were “re-rolled out” and the verbiage reworded and Manufactured Homes are STILL OKAY (but DAP’s with them are not!).

Rate Watch 9/25/08: Carefully Floating

Just as the past two days of advice has started, this morning I am recommending carefully floating as Stocks are up 190 points and Bonds are up 10 bps from open. Today's news which benefitted Bonds included a worse in 7 years Initial Jobless Claims Report reading which indicates weakness in the Labor Market. The Durable Goods Report also came in lower than expectations, showing again that we have inherent liquidity problems in our economy because it takes financing to build durable goods and expand inventories. These two reports are adding to the need to pass the $700B rescue plan, and quickly! Several key reports coming out of Capitol Hill from President Bush's National address last night, is that we will see action on the recue plan by Monday 9/29/08! For now, I recommend floating, but as we have seen recently, the direction can change quickly and I will advise you of a need to lock if the Bonds change direction with the additional testimony of Paulson and Bernanke today. On the technical side, Bonds are trading just above their floor of support at 100.06 (floor at 100). As previously mentioned, we have seen Bonds bounce off of this floor in the past, but in the event Bond Prices fall below this floor, we could see another .49 bps drop in prices (drop in price=increase in bond yield=increase in mortgage rates).

Rate Trend Index: 9/25/08

This week, 40 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Almost half think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

Down: 47%

Average Mortgage Rates: 9/25/08


Conventional Loan: These averages include 1.75% discount point, origination fee of $795, $400 appraisal, Title Fees, assumes 20% equity, Loan size of $160,000, Credit Score of 720. FHA Loan: .35% higher in rate, 1.375% discount point, $795 origination fee, $150,000 Loan size, 600 credit score, 3% equity, $400 Appraisal, Title Fees

30 yr fixed mtg

15 yr fixed mtg

5/1 ARM

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Manufactured Housing Financing: FHA

From my Underwriting Team, today:

We had two investors left doing Manufactured homes. They both have pulled their Manufactured Homes financing this week… we have NO investors doing them! (and we can NOT broker FHA files)

FHA is working on rewriting the guidelines for Manufactured Homes, so I anticipate they will be back….but as of now, we can’t do them.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Daniel and Tia Johansen

Tony and Karen Thompson-Exit Realty Central in Layton, Daniel and Tia Johansen, and Marty Qualls. September 24, 2008 Closing at Founders Title Company with T.K. Fenner, Escrow
Closing Officer.

Buyer Thank You:

"Marty was an enormous help, not only in our loan application process, but in all the processes to get us to closing. We really appreciated how honest Marty was and the vast amount of time he spent explaining every step 0f the process to us. Everything couldn't have gone smoother, he worked with our busy schedule and helped speed everything along. We will refer everyone we know to Marty for home loans; no where will you find better service!" Daniel and Tia Johansen

Realtor Thank You:

"Marty worked on a loan for my clients this last month and I was very impressed with his knowledge of the loan programs and the current market conditions. Marty was extremely efficient, and made sure that my clients needs were met. The loan closed even earlier than we expected, and my clients were thrilled! We all enjoyed Marty's personal manner and sense of humor. I will recommend Marty to future clients as one of the loan officers they may use." Karen Thompson-Realtor Exit Realty Lakeview-Cell: 801-721-0791

Rate Watch 9/24/08: Carefully Floating

Bonds are improving slightly from yesterday's lock alert at midday. All eyes are on the Bailout discussion with Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke doing their best to sell the need for the program to the House and Senate Banking Committees. So far, it sounds as if the program would pass a vote in the House and Senate, but there will be some 'Politisizing' of the way it should be handled. Speed of the vote is critical. Credit is tightening daily and we continue to have a liquidity crunch in the Mortgage Market. I again say that the bailout move will help the Financial Markets, Stock and Bonds, over the LONG RUN, but for the short run, the market is looking at many bumps and volatility! For now I recomend carefully floating and will be watching the 4 critical reports and 3 meetings going on today which will have effect on the direction of rates.

Borrower Keeping Current Home: Guideline Change

As of Oct 1, 2008, all lenders and all programs (Conventional & FHA) will be changing the guideline regarding a borrower keeping their current home (usually as a rental that was documented by a lease agreement, which offset the payment) while purchasing the subject property. Listed below if the information regarding the change (call me with questions):

Pending Sale

If the current principal residence is a pending sale, but the transaction will not be closed (with title transfer to a new owner) prior to the new transaction:
· Both the current and proposed mortgage payments must be used to qualify the borrower

Conversion to Second Home

If the current principal residence is being retained as a Second Home:
· Must meet qualifications as a Second Home as defined in the Credit Policy Manual
· Both the current and the proposed mortgage payments must be used to qualify the borrower for the new transaction
· Property has not been listed for sale in the past 90 days (unless evidence of job transfer is provided)
· Property has been owned at least 12 months (unless evidence of job transfer is provided)
· Reserves equivalent to:
o 6 months PITI for both properties is required; OR
o 2 months PITI if there is documented equity of at least 30% in the existing principal residence (as determined by an appraisal or AVM).

Conversion to Investment Property

If the current principal residence is being retained as an Investment property
· Both the current and the proposed mortgage payments must be used to qualify the borrower for the new transaction
· Property has not been listed for sale in the past 90 days (unless evidence of job transfer is provided)
· Property has been owned at least 12 months (unless evidence of job transfer is provided)
· Reserves equivalent to 6 months PITI for both properties is required.
· Up to 75% of Rental Income may be used to offset the mortgage payment if:
o There is documented equity of at least 30% in the existing principal residence (as determined by an appraisal or AVM); AND
o Provide a copy of the fully executed lease agreement; AND
o Provide evidence of receipt of a security deposit from the tenant and evidence that it has been deposited into the borrower’s account

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Rate Watch 9/23/08: Carefully Floating

After a mid day reprice for the worse yesterday, after a Lock Bias yesterday morning, today the Bond market is trying to stabilize in the midst of the Fed's Testimony before Congress to sell the $700 Billion Bailout package. For now I am advising to Carefully Float and I will watch the market's reaction to the Congressional hearings today and will alert you of a change in direction.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"We appreciated your promptness in handling all issues and problems." Greggory and Linda P., Loan#13743-992207

Buyer Thank You

"Thanks for everything you did to ensure our loan was processed. We certainly appreciate all of your efforts. We'll recommend you to our friends." Leo and Diane G., Loan#14051-992008

Buyer Thank You

"We appreciated Marty helping us take care of problems and we would recommend him to others" JD and Heather M, Loan#14560-993108

Buyer Thank You

"Marty was the best part of our Mortgage Experience and he did an excellent job of personalizing and simplifying the loan process for us." Clair and Sandy R., Loan#14450-003-992508

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"Friendly service-Always with a smile :-)" David and Melanie P., Loan#14373-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"Excellent service all the way around and I liked Marty's Stick-too-it-tiveness!" James and Teresa M., Loan#14257-003-99

Friday, September 19, 2008

Rate Watch 9/19/08: Carefully Floating

This is an incredible day at the end of a VERY incredibly volatile week! Today, there have been 3 enormous announcements which are going to have a HUGE impact on our financial markets. Yesterday there was a modern day (21st century) "Run on the Bank", with $180 Billion withdrawn from Money Market Funds. Today, the Fed and SEC have come to the rescue with the following announcements which are sure to improve the Financial Markets, Stocks and Bonds alike, over the LONG TERM. Here are the 3 announcements: 1) The US Government will Guarantee ALL Money Market Funds! 2) The Fed will create a marketplace for all of the illiquid Mortgage debt! Absolutely Brilliant! 3) There is now an SEC ban on short selling of 799 financially related stocks (this is in place until October 4th and can be extended for 30 day increments as needed). For now I recommend Carefully Floating as we ride this wave of great news. The market is going to be exceptionally volatile today, so I will watch closely and advise you if we have a turn for the worse in the Bond Market.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Rate Watch: Carefully Floating

More wild ride today! The Bond market opened slightly worse to the improvement in Stocks. Oil went to $98/ barrel, stocks rallied and Bonds were at the worst point of the day and I recommended Locking ahead of a midday loan price worsening. Stocks rally for the rest of the day and soar to a 400 point increase. But in the light of all of this movement, Bonds ended the day EXACTLY where they had started which was at 101.00! Lot's of movement from open to close, but we ended up in exactly the same place! Bonds are currently trading in a BROAD range of almost 100 bps (you should see the Bond Charts, it's unbelievable!)! On the technical side, bonds are trading between a ceiling of 101.47 and a floor of 100.50 (ended the day at 101). Anything is possible in this volatile market and I continue to recommend floating to see what direction we can see in tomorrow's opening.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Rate Watch: Market Close

I don't normally give a Market Close report, but today deserves a mention of the wild ride we are experiencing! Bonds have made up half of their loss from yesterday, up 58 bps (up 44 bps since we received rate sheets) (we lost 96 yesterday) and the Stock market is looking for a life preserver (off 239). Here is a quote from a Bond Trader who has been in the market since 1969: "I have never seen a market like we are in right now". VERY VOLATILE! With the current movement in the market and the financial news, I continue to recommend Floating.

Rate Watch: Cautiously Floating

Bonds are trading modestly higher (higher price, lower yield and lower interest rates) after the Fed's loan to AIG to prevent it's Bankruptcy, and the Stock market is off 500 points so far today. Stocks and Bonds are digesting all of the news from yesterday as the Fed left the discount rate the same, and today's report of lower new housing starts. For now, I recommend cautiously floating as Bonds improve slowly from yesterday's downward market movement.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Investment Property Financing Update: 9/16/08

Not such good news in the investor financing arena.

We have been receiving rate adjustors from our lenders of an additional 1% cost for investment property financing at 80% and 90% loan to value. The rate hits are not as severe at 70%.

We received the last investor increase today (of our 8 we place loans with), so from here on out it is going to be more expensive to finance investment property (for the time being, anyway!).

Rate Watch 9/16/08: Cautiously Floating

Up until today there really was not a worry that the Fed would cut the Fed Funds rate at their meeting today, but with the dire circumstance of near Bankruptcy of AIG (an insurance company operating in 160 countries!), the Fed may cut the rate by .25% to .50% today to give a calm in the the face of a storm. If this happens, bonds will not like this because of the inflationary pressures that it puts on bond prices. Stocks are retreating early in trading and is helping Bonds stay at the flat line, to slightly off, since the markets opened. Stay tuned, I may be reversing my recommendation to Lock this afternoon after we see what the Fed does with the Discount Rate. This really is a wild ride we are on right now!

Monday, September 15, 2008

Rate Watch 9/15/08: Float

Just another Moday? Not by a long shot! Remember a whole week ago? We had the Fannie/Freddie Government backing announcement? Today is loaded with just as much good news for improvement in Mortgage Bonds as last week. Stay tuned and my advice is to Float for now, and I will guide you on our timing for locking in possibly the best mortgage rates this year!

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"My loan was quick and hassle free and Marty was honest and worked with me." Jason S., Loan#14449-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"I liked that Marty was associated with my Real Estate Agents."Eric H. Loan#14251-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"Communication on the Loan Status from Marty was excellent and the service was much faster than expected." James and Karen B., Loan#15299-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"Marty did an excellent job of explaining the entire loan process to me and the excellent personalized service. Marty and his processing team were the best part of the loan process." Candice W. Loan#16033-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"Excellent job simplifying the loan process and meeting our closing date. The best part of the loan process was working with Marty!" Daniel and Wendy M., Loan#15275-003-99

Bridal Fair-Fall 2008-Union Station

The 2008 Fall Bridal Fair at Union Station in Ogden was the gathering spot for Bride's, their Mom's, and even some of the Groom's!

In the two years that I have been involved in the Bridal Fair, this was the one which I was able to deliver the most exciting news about First Time Home Buyer BENEFITS yet!

Three of the highlights available to First Time Home Buyer's include:
  • $7500 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit!
  • Utah Housing 100% Financing is still here!
  • Best Mortgage Rates in 2008!

Go to the right side of my Blog, look for LABELS and search for "Planning for Success" and "Loan Program Updates". Here you will find information and tools for First Time Home Buyer's!

Friday, September 12, 2008

Signing up for YOU Magazine!

If you would like a complimentary YOU magazine subscription, look on the right hand side of the Blog, find the area to sign up for the magazine and enter your information!

I will also send a Quarterly Finance and a Home Quarterly newsletter which contain very well written articles to help you mazimize your investments and ideas to beautify and maintain your home!


Planning for Success: Buyer Thank You

"The program that Marty presented to us gave us a good foundation of knowledge for mortgages and home buying. We feel that it was beneficial to us." Denny and Brittney Green, 9/11/08

Rate Trend Index 9/11-9/17/08

Sept. 11 - Sept. 17, 2008
This week, 15 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. More than half think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Down: 57%

Average Mortgage Rates 9/12/08

Conventional Loan: These averages include 1.75% discount point, origination fee of $795, $400 appraisal, Title Fees, assumes 20% equity, Loan size of $160,000, Credit Score of 720. FHA Loan: .35% higher in rate, 1.375% discount point, $795 origination fee, $150,000 Loan size, 600 credit score, 3% equity, $400 Appraisal, Title Fees

30 yr fixed mtg

15 yr fixed mtg

5/1 ARM

Rate Watch 9/8-9/11/08: Float and 9/12: Lock Bias

The market this past week after Monday included 3 days of Float recommendation and this morning it turned to a lock recommendation. The Bond market has been favorable this week because of the Freddie and Fannie Bailout (this is what it is being called-but in reality, the Government is insuring the Mortgage Backed Securities of these two HUGE companies with tax payer money). Once the liquidity returns, which is what is slowly happening this week and will continue for the next 18 months, as all of the non performing Mortgage Backed Securities work through the system, we will see a 'Normalcy' return to the Bond markets. It's complicated to say the least, but I will keep you updated on changes that are coming and any further direction change. Monday will be a good day to take note of my recommendation because it could be a leading indicator of the rate movement for the next couple of weeks.

Melanie Corbin

Melanie Corbin and Marty Qualls, Closing at Inwest Title with Rachel Miller, Escrow Officer.

"Immediately when I met Marty Qualls for the first time, I felt that he was a reliable, competent man with ample knowledge in the mortgage field. Marty was more than helpful with the process along with encouraging and heartening. In fact I have hung his business card in the faculty room of the school where I teach because I know he will work equally hard for others. Thank you Marty for a job very well done. There were days that I wasn't sure that it would all come together and you were there to reassure. It was a pleasure to work with you, and as a matter of fact I sorta miss talking with you. I'll give you a call sometime. Thanks again!" Melanie Corbin

Monday, September 8, 2008

Rate Watch: Float

Great news for the future solvency of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was announced yesterday. The Government is now guaranteeing all Mortage Bonds issued by Freddie and Fannie in the past and in the future! Because of solvency issues with the two largest insureres of Mortgage Loans in the United States (they insure over 60% of all loans!), this news has been viewed as huge stabalization within the Mortgage Market. Liquidity, Stability and Affordability in the Mortgage Markets is now guaranteed as the Government offers $200 Billion in Bond Guarantees. Mortgage prices have been very favorable today and on the technical side, a switch to watching the 5.50% Bond from (moving down from the 6.00% Bond) is immenent with the improvement in the market. I will recommend floating for now and will let you know if there is a change in direction within the market.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"Marty gave me excellent personalized service, he was easy to contact (always accessible) and the service was great, thanks." Vickie T, Loan#15543-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"We liked the over the phone service and the service we received could not be improved upon." Brayden and Erin W., Loan#13581-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"We were kept very well informed on the status of our loan and the service was very personalized." Steven & Lisa P., Loan#15282-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"Marty receives the highest rating for all of the things he did for us in helping us get our mortgage loan and we will recommend him to others." Monchai and Julianna S., Loan#15064-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"Marty did an excellent job in explaining the entire loan process to me and made the whole process simple." Jesus SanJuan, Loan#14659-003-99

Friday, September 5, 2008

"You" Magazine Thank You

I love "YOU" magazine!! Thanks bunches! Really good articles!

Christine Bybee, Branch Broker, RE/MAX Realty Group

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Roger and Gaby Lind

Penny Florence, Gaby and Roger Lind, Julie Neerings and Marty Qualls, Closing at United Title Services-Nette Ray Escrow Officer, 9/04/08. Penny and Julie are with Keller Williams Realty.

"The two best things about working with Marty were his dedication and commitment to us and getting our loan done!" Roger and Gaby Lind, Closing September 4, 2008

Rate Watch 9/4/08: Float

Bonds have broken above the 200 day moving average and preliminary jobs reports estimates (from the report to be released tomorrow) indicates Bond friendly numbers. It will be prudent to float into tomorrows report and see if we can continue the rate improvements we have enjoyed the last two days.

Utah Housing Rate Update: 9/04/08

FirstHome and FirstHome Plus
Mortgage Rates

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Rate Trend Index

Aug. 28 - Sept. 3
This week, the panelists were almost evenly split. A little over one-third believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days, and a little over a third believe they will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Almost one-third think rates will fall.
Down: 28%

Average Mortgage Rates 9/3/08

Conventional Loan: These averages include 1.75% discount point, origination fee of $795, $400 appraisal, Title Fees, assumes 20% equity, Loan size of $160,000, Credit Score of 720. FHA Loan: .35% higher in rate, 1.375% discount point, $795 origination fee, $150,000 Loan size, 600 credit score, 3% equity, $400 Appraisal, Title Fees

30 yr fixed mtg

15 yr fixed mtg

5/1 ARM

Rate Watch: Carefully Floating

With a tough 200 day moving average just overhead, it is prudent to float for now, but be prepared for a change in direction. Boston Fed pResident Rosengren is scheduled to speak this afternoon which could cause a ripple in the Bond market. Oil continues to trade just below it's 200 day moving average, which is noteworthy, since the last time it traded below this level was in March of 2007, when oil was trading at $62 per barrel. It appears that in the Fed Fund Futures there is little chance that the Fed will raise the discount rate when they meet September 16th. I will watch the market carefully today and will let you know if there is a change in direction.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Rate Watch: Market closed: Labor Day

On a Holiday and on a weekend, the rate sheet from the business day "before" is what I can lock at. Enjoy your Labor Day!

Buyer Thank You

"Personal service-team work with the Realtors. Excellent responsivness to our requests." Aldo and Hollye B. Loan#15105-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"Way above an excellent rating for meeting our expected closing date! The best part of the loan process was working with Marty." John and Kerri M., Loan#14803-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"Marty's willingness to help-that's what I liked best." Robert P., Loan#15988-003-99

Buyer Thank You

"Marty gave us excellent personalized service, explained the entire loan process to us, and kept us well informed during the loan process. Excellent rating on all aspects of the loan process and we will use Marty again and recommend him to others." Ryan and Megan S., Loan number 16391-003-99

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Planning For Success Program Testimonial

"Thank you Thank you! Thanks for taking the time to go over everything with us and helping us better our credit and to achieve our goal of owning a home for our family. Thanks again!" Dan and Kira Salmond

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Justin and Lana Brady

Justin, Adyson, and Lana Brady, Marty Qualls, Closing at Inwest Title with Rachel Miller, August 29, 2008.

"Marty provided excellent communication, feedback, and the whole process was awesome working with Marty! We will refer him whenever we can! We never wondered for a day where were in the process and we liked his Rate Watch Program because it helped us have good information so we knew when to lock our loan rate." Justin and Lana Brady, Closing 8/29/08

Friday, August 29, 2008

Rate Watch 8/29/08: Locking

After 4 days of favorable bonds, there is a negative crossover emerging in the bond charts, indicating an overbought status. The Bond Market took in data from reports relased today that the Economy is stronger and inflation highest since 1991 (in the key Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCEI) report that includes energy costs). This PCEI was at 2.4% and the Fed likes to see it at 1-2%. With the headwinds of a stronger economy, 4 days of improving rates and a higher than expected inflation report, it is prudent to recommend locking. The market closes early today and will open again the day after Labor Day on Tuesday.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Ken and Betty Corbin

Ken and Betty Corbin, Chandler, Arizona, Closing August 20, 2008

Monthien Charangkit

Brent Larsen-Zip Realty, Monthien Charangkit, Marty Qualls-August 28, 2008-Closing at First America Title.

"Marty was Friendly, he kept in touch with me, he was a nice guy!" Monthien Charangkit, Borrower, loan closing 8/28/08

Rate Watch 8/28/08: Carefully Floating

Bonds have tested an important ceiling (100 day moving average) and are already off of their best pricing for the day. Two important factors are going to continue to test Bonds today. First, 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers were released and they exceeded expectations and this is putting selling pressure on bonds because of the strenghtening of the stock market. Second, there is a $22 Billion dollar 5 year Treasury Note Auction this afternoon that could put additional selling pressure on Bonds. For now, I continue to recommend floating and will watch as the day progresses for changes in direction.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Jeremy and Cathy London

Charlene Tuttle-Brough Realty, Cathy and Jeremy London and Marty Qualls-August 27, 2008-Closing at Bonneville Superior Title, Kaye Cazier, Escrow Officer

Buyer Thank You:

"Marty answered any and all questions that we had. He told us about all of the programs that were out there and assisted with helping us to have requirements completed for the programs that we qualified for. We were able to understand everything that was going on every step of the way.
Marty, you go the extra mile and then some; most will only go as far as they need to for the sale to happen. You were there for us from start to finish when the house became ours. Thanks."
Jeremy and Cathy London, Closing August 27, 2008

John Galli

Ron and Cheryl Galli (signing with Power of Attorney for son John Galli who was out of town and unavailable), Marty Qualls-August 27, 2008. Closing at First American Title, Sue Heiner Escrow Officer.

Rate Watch 8/27/08: Carefully Floating

Durable Goods orders Report for July was released and was much more favorable than expected, along with Atlanta Federal Reserve Presedent Lockhart's comments about inflation pressures easing, has created selling pressure in the Bond Market and improvement in the stock market this morning. There is also concern about the path of Hurricane Gustav, and the possible disruption of oil supply in the Gulf of Mexico. For now I recommend Carefully Floating, but will be watching the markets very closely today and advise you of any change in direction.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Rate Watch 8/26/08: Floating

Consumer Confidence was up with the strenghtening dollar and lower oil prices. Technically, Bonds are trading at 100.66, comfortably between the floor of the 50 day moving average of 100.28 and the ceiling of the 100 day moving average of 101.04. For now, I recommend floating, but stay tuned for any changes in direction.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Rate Watch 8/25/08: Carefully Floating

Bonds are catching an improvement this morning with the uncertainty in stocks caused by weakness in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Lehman Brothers (still no suitor for Lehman Brothers). Technically, the Fannie Mae 6.00% Bond is trading at 100.56 which is in between the ceiling of the 100 day moving average at 101.06 and the floor of the 50 day moving day average of 100.25. At 9:00 a.m. MST, existing home sales just came in slightly higher than expectations which is continuing to help Bonds. For now I recommend floating and see if there is continued improvement in Bonds as the day goes on.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"Excellent job explaining the loans process, keeping us informed on the status of our loan, and meeting our closing date. We will recommend Marty to others." Kevin and Denise M., Loan#16066-003-00

Buyer Thank You

"Excellent job on all aspects of the loan process! Excellent Service and keep up the excellent work. Thanks!" Tyrone N, Loan#16404-003-00

Buyer Thank You

"Marty really worked with us on everything." Jose and Michelle A., Loan#14598-003-00

Buyer Thank You

"Marty did an excellent job of explaining the entire loan process to us and did an excellent job in meeting our expected closing date. Marty was great--he always returned our calls promptly!" Cirtney and Juliann J., Loan#17570-003-00

Did you know?

Humans first made large-scale use of wind power almost 3,000 years B.C., when the Egyptians built the first sailing ships.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Planning for Success: First Time Home Buyer Program

I designed "Planning for Success Program" specifically for First Time Home Buyers!

During our first consulation meeting I will review the Credit Report in great detail (it really is ALL ABOUT credit scores right now!) and will provide a personalized Analysis of what needs to be done in order to improve the credit scores! This analysis will help minimize the interest rate, points, and closing costs on the future mortgage loan!

All First Time Home Buyer's I meet with get a FREE 3 Bureau Credit Report and I teach them how to read the report and then we talk about down payment and closing cost basics.
As our meeting continues, it becomes the "Getting Ready to Buy Program" which includes:

"Shopping for a Home" and why a Pre-Approval is better than a Pre-Qualification!
"The Home Loan Process": Here I give them the EXCELLENT 490 page book, "101 Questions Every First Time Home Buyer Should Ask", authored by Ilyce R Glink
"Planning for a Successful Closing" outlines the 19 steps of the homebuying process!
"Realtor Endorsement" and the value they bring to the success of the transaction!

Call or e-mail me to set up a "Planning for Success" consultation meeting!

First Time Home Buyer Thank You

"Thank you, Thank you! Thanks for taking the time to go over everything with us and helping us better our credit and to achieve our goal of owning a home for our family. Thanks again!" Kira and Dan S.

I helped First Time Home Buyer's Dan and Kira with my FREE "Planning for Success Program"!

During our first consulation meeting I reviewed their Credit Report in great detail (it really is ALL ABOUT credit scores right now!) and gave them a personalized Analysis of what they needed to do to improve their scores and minimize the interest rate that will pay on their mortgage loan!

All First Time Home Buyer's I meet with get a FREE 3 Bureau Credit Report and I teach them how to read the report and then we talk about down payment and closing cost basics.

As our meeting continues, it becomes the "Getting Ready to Buy Program" which includes:
  1. "Shopping for a Home" and why a Pre-Approval is better than a Pre-Qualification!
  2. "The Home Loan Process": Here I give them the EXCELLENT 490 page book, "101 Questions Every First Time Home Buyer Should Ask", authored by Ilyce R Glink
  3. "Planning for a Successful Closing" outlines the 19 steps of the homebuying process!
  4. "Realtor Endorsement" and the value they bring to the success of the transaction!

Friday, August 22, 2008

Alert to LOCK! 8:43 a.m. 8/22/08

As happened yesterday, we have a stochastic crossover in the Bond Charts created by the oversold status of Bonds this morning and this coupled with Ben Bernanke's speech (which is happening right now) where his is talking about inflation (bonds hate inflation) and the stock market is on a rally (up 180 points this morning, which is taking money out of the bond market), I am recommending locking before lenders come out with a re-price for the worse this morning.

Thank You!

As always, I wish to thank my clients who have been kind enough to refer business to me. I appreciate the opportunity to provide excellent service to your family, friends, and co-workers! Marty Qualls

Facts and Figures: Auto Fuel Efficiency

According to the Department of Energy, the following are currently the most-fuel efficient cars:

1. Toyota Prius City: 48 HWY: 45; 2. Honda Civic Hybrid City: 40 HWY: 45; 3. Smart Convertible City: 33 HWY: 41; 4. Toyota Yaris City: 29 HWY: 36; 5. Mini Cooper (Manual) City: 28 HWY: 37; 6. Toyota Corolla City: 28 HWY: 37; 7. Honda Fit City: 28 HWY: 34; 8. Nissan Versa City: 26 HWY: 31.

And just for fun, here are the least efficient: 1. Lamborghini Mucielago City: 8 HWY: 13; 2. Bentley Azure City: 9 HWY: 15; 3. Bentley Arnage RL City: 9 HWY: 15; 4. Ferrari 612 Scaglietti City: 9 HWY: 16; 5. Aston Martin DB9 City: 10 HWY: 16; 6. Bentley Continental GTC City: 10 HWY: 17; 7. Mercedes Benz E63 AMG City: 12 HWY: 18; 8. Audi S4 Avant City: 13 HWY: 20.

Quote of the Day 8/22/08

"One machine can do the work of fifty ordinary men. No machine can do the work of one extraordinary man."
– Elbert Hubbard

Rate Watch 8/22/08: Cautiously Floating

Bonds have found a ceiling of support at the 50 day moving average and we will wait until Ben Bernanke's speech today on the condition of the world financial markets to see which way it takes Stocks and Bonds. With no major reports out today, Bond's will most likely take their direction from Stock's. I will let you know if there is any change in direction in this very tumultuous market we are experiencing.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Rate Watch 8/21/08: WILD!

After the Bond market Improvement yesterday, profits are being pared away this morning by traders and, depending on when my investors came out with price sheets this morning, we are on the verge of a reprice for the worse. State Unemployment claims were released this morning at the highest level since 1991 (usually a help to bonds, but the numbers are being discounted because of a new Federal Program reflected in the numbers), and Bonds are currently in an 'overbought' position which makes the market ripe for a reversal and worse Bond pricing within the next couple of hours. I will be watching VERY closely and will alert you of an Alert to Lock if it is necessary.

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Rate Watch: Cautiously Floating

Bonds have continued to battle the 50 day moving average overhead for the past 3 trading sessions and today is the same news. This tough layer of resistance has only been cracked 2 times in the past 3 months, but with the stock market stumbling quite dramatically at mid day, there has been a flight to the "safe haven" of bonds and values have improved just above the 50 day moving average. Be prepared for a change of direction, however, as this volatile market can turn on a dime.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Average Mortgage Rates 8/18/08

Conventional Loan: These averages include 1.75% discount point, origination fee of $795, $400 appraisal, Title Fees, assumes 20% equity, Loan size of $160,000, Credit Score of 720.
FHA Loan: .35% higher in rate, 1.375% discount point, $795 origination fee, $150,000 Loan size, 600 credit score, 3% equity, $400 Appraisal, Title Fees

30 yr fixed mtg

15 yr fixed mtg

5/1 ARM

Rate Trend Index 8/15/08

Aug. 14 - Aug. 20, 2008
It was almost an even split this week. Just a little over one-third of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 31 percent think rates will fall, and 31 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Down: 31%

About Rate Trend Index: The Rate Trend Index surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers.

By The Numbers 8/18/08

  • As 8/15/08, the National Average price of unleaded gas has fallen for 29 consecutive days.
  • Prescription drug costs have increased 87% in the past 5 years.
  • Monthly exports by U.S. Businesses increased by 95% from June 2003 ($84B) to June 2008 ($164B)

Rate watch: Cautiously Floating

Mortgage Bonds battle a tough overhead ceiling of the 50 day Moving Average and with no reports out this morning, I recommend floating to see how Bonds react to the movement of Stocks, which are a bit higher this morning. With the volatility in the Mortgage Industry, knowledge and insight is more valuable than ever, which is why I monitor the market throughout the day and keep you informed of changes that impact you.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Did You Know?

U.S. paper currency isn't made of paper - it's actually a blend of cotton and linen.

Buyer Thank You

"Marty did an excellent job of keeping me informed on the status of my loan and the best part of working with Marty's Company is Marty!" James L, Loan#17066-003

Buyer Thank You

"Marty and his processing team were the best part of the loan process! There is nothing that you can do to improve the service that we received." Lando and Michelle M., Loan#17844-003-00

Buyer Thank You

"We would recommend Marty to others and Marty was really nice!" Amy L. and Tyler L., Loan#17941-003-00

Buyer Thank You

"Marty did an excellent job in simplifying the loan process for me. What I liked best about Marty is that we closed VERY FAST!" Tom S., Loan#19372-002-00

Thursday, August 14, 2008

BLOG Sign Up

Would you like to sign up to receive all of my Blog updates?  It's easy!

Sign up for the RSS Feed (on the right side, top, right below my portrait).  I use Outlook, so I signed up for the Atom, the choice at the bottom of the choice list.  After I signed up, now I see my Blog in my mail menu on the left under RSS feed and I can click on it to see all of my blog posts.  I can copy and paste to my clients and Realtors who are interested in a topic I have Blog posted.

If you choose any of the others (Google, Yahoo, etc), my Blog will be listed on the left hand side and you can click and open it and see the Blog Posts.  

Now it's easy to stay in touch with what's going on in the Mortgage world!

Rate Watch: Carefully Floating

Bonds are favorable this morning after a worse than expected Consumer Price Index (worst inflation this year since 1991) and Initial Jobs Claims report which is showing continued weakness in the economy. For now, it is prudent to float and watch to see how Bonds perform underneath the 3 levels of resistance overhead. The markets are very volatile this past week and I will keep you posted on any changes in advice that may occur.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Rate Watch: Floating

The Current Trend Direction this morning is sideways after weak economic reports by John Deere and Macey's. Stocks have taken a slight downturn which has helped Mortgage Bonds hold onto their gains from yesterday. Technically, Bond price is currently at 99.94, above support of 99.09 and below a tough ceiling overhead at the 25 days moving average of 100.11 and the 50 Day MA at 100.30. For now we can float, but I will watch closely for movement since Bonds are trading within a wide range right now. I just received a rate lock alert after the market lagged this morning and early this afternoon. With the higher inflation report I now recommend locking. 12:40 p.m.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Realtor Thank You

"I just wanted to take a moment and say thank you for all you do. The information you continually provide is awesome." Cameron Almond, Realtor

Rate Watch: Bias toward Locking

Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning and should be taking their cue from stocks, which will be watching crude oil very closely. The lower oil prices should help ease inflation, as the Fed has recently mentioned, but oil flow has stopped in Georgia because of the Russian bombardment of the country and it unknown how or when the situation there will end. With Bond prices moving lower this morning, and on the technical side, a tough layer of resistance overhead, I recommend locking. As always, I will watch the situation closely and keep you posted of any changes in the market.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Buyer Thank You

"Quick and Succinct!" Carlos and Ann L., Loan#20606-002-00

Buyer Thank You

"Marty was excellent in how responsive he was with our requests!" Ben and Julie H., 26612-002-00

Buyer Thank You

"What we liked best about Marty is how fast he handled the loan!" Ryan and Faith W., Loan#25276-002-00

Buyer Thank You

"Marty provided us with excellent personalized service and we would recommend him to others." Gerald and Laura P., Loan#18018-003-00

Did you know?

The first television sitcom couple to ever share the same bed on a regular basis was Lily and Herman Munster.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Rate Watch: Locking

Mortgage Bonds are up this morning after the Second Quarter Productivity Report in non-farm business was released at 2.20%, slightly lower than estimates of 2.50%.

What is particularly interesting about this report is that employers eliminated 165,000 workers in the Second Quarter, so what happened is that we got more production from fewer workers! I guess this is what they used to call "American Ingenuity"! When you get more production from fewer workers, this is good for Bonds becuause it helps lower inflationary pressures.

As predicted yesterday, prices went up to the 25 day moving average and have now bounced off this level. I am recommending locking today and taking advantage of the price improvement and lower yeild we got yesterday and this morning.

P.S. Oil is down again this morning at $116 per barrel, well below the $147 peak from last month. What's crazy is that we think $116 per barrel is cheap!

HR3221: Tax Credit for First Time Homebuyers

First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit Clarification 8/8/08 (HR3221: Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008)

A tax credit is much more valuable than a deduction! A credit reduces dollar for dollar the amount of tax you owe. A deduction merely reduces the amount of your income that is taxable. Under the new law, certain homeowners will be eligible for a tax credit equal to 10 percent of the purchase price of a home, up to a maximum of $7,500. The credit is $3,750 for married couples filing separately. Unmarried people who jointly purchase a home will be able to divide the $7,500 credit.

This tax credit is actually a loan, administered through the tax code (basically, a LOAN, cloaked as a tax credit!). Very important that our first time homebuyer's understand the mechanics of how this loan will be repaid. The loan does have the best rate and term you can get. It's interest-free! Buyers who take advantage of the TAX CREDIT, would be required to repay the government over 15 years in equal installments for any amount received. So let's say the first time homebuyer qualifies for the maximum $7,500. The terms would mean a yearly loan payment of $500 for 15 years, or about $41.67 a month.

WHEN DOES THE REPAYMENT BEGIN?: Repaying the credit starts in the second tax year after the home is purchased. If the home is sold before the credit is paid back, the entire amount becomes immediately due. However, if the home is sold and the gain is less than the credit, then the amount that must be repaid is up to the amount of gain. If the homeowner dies, any outstanding amount is forgiven. The credit applies only to homes purchased on or after April 9, 2008, and before July 1, 2009.

WHO QUALIFIES FOR THE CREDIT? High-income buyers won't qualify for the credit. LESS can be claimed, the more you earn. The phase-out starts for single filers with adjusted income of more than $75,000 and $150,000 for joint filers. It completely phases out at $95,000 for singles; $170,000 for married couples filing jointly.

Additional standard deduction allowed (only applied for the 2008 tax year): The law would provide homeowners who claim the standard deduction with an additional standard deduction for state and local real property taxes. The maximum that may be claimed under this provision is $500 ($1,000 for joint filers).