Breaking News! Release of 2019 and 2020 mortgage rate predictions

October 2018 forecast: Mortgage rate at 5.6% in 2020

Oct. 29, 2018 5:34 PM ET|About: |By: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor

 

Predicted Mortgage Rates: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates to rise to 5.1% in 2019 and 5.6% in 2020, up from expected average rate of 4.5% this year, according to the October Forecast.
 

 

How high will payments go with the higher rates?
4.50% was the Average rate for 2018
5.1% in 2019 (+$49/month on a $300,000 Loan Amount)
5.6% in 2020 (+$143/mo. on $300K LA)
If take into consideration the increase in value (see below)
the payment increase in 2020 is estimated to be +$153 higher.




Home prices are expected to increase 5.4% in 2018 with the growth rate slowing to 4.6% in 2019 and 2.9% in 2020.

 Home price increases on a home valued at $331,100 (Dec 2017):

Value at the end of 2018=+5.4%= $350,000

Value at the end of 2019= +4.6% = + $16,100= $366,100

Value at the end of 2020= +2.9%= +$10,600= $376,700 home

Total of a $45,600 increase in value in THREE years!





 

Total home sales--new and existing--are now forecasted to decline modestly this year to 6.07M, and then increase 1.8% to 6.18M in 2019 and rising 1.1% to 6.25M in 2020.





 

 

                                                     
                                                     
Summary statement: 

"While we expect the weakness in housing activity to extend the next few months as the market absorbs the recent uptick in mortgage rates, the combination of strong economic growth and millennials moving toward homeownership should help home sales regain momentum and rise modestly in 2019," says Chief Economist Sam Khater.

                       

Marty Qualls
Cell 801-540-5108
email: mqualls@primeres.com

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Study says: Be an Influencer AND a Real Estate Agent and 80% of Millennials will want you!

A majority of millennials said they would consider hiring an "influencer" as a real estate agent, according to a new study.

A survey of 1000 millennials born between 1982-1999, with income greater than $100,000 per year, found that 84% of these "High Earners, Not Rich Yet" or "HENRY's" confirmed that, "Influencers impacted their decision to make purchases and 80% would consider hiring one as a Real Estate Agent".

To be an influencer, we hear the phrase ‘be a digital mayor’ often in the real estate industry, but that’s not enough anymore,” said Engel & Völkers Americas President and CEO Anthony Hitt. 

While you have to have the neighborhood knowledge, social presence, work for the right company, have the reputation that precedes your interaction with buyer's and seller's, you also have to have a niche or distinguishing factor that blends this knowledge with entertainment or aspirational value that will make you a center of influence — building your following and referral base as a result.

The survey also found that 98% of HENRY's rely on social media or reviews based on websites like Yelp.  With HENRY's poised to become the next generation of wealth, Realtor branding must set out specifics on how they plan to serve this distinctive generation. 

Here are the top three factors for HENRY's choosing a Real Estate Agent:
1)  Referral from Friends and family 59%
2)  Reputation in the local neighborhood 53%
3)  Local neighborhood expertise 50%

Authenticity has never been more important, and real estate agents should position themselves as trusted advisors and sources of insider information before, during and after the transaction.

These consumers are going to seek out agents they feel are knowledgeable and trustworthy — and ones that they can relate to or even aspire to on certain levels.

Source of information from Gabriela Barkho, Inman News


Marty Qualls
PRMI Mortgage-Ogden Office
801-540-5108
email: mqualls@primeres.com

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When are mortgage rates going to go up?

For the fourth straight month, the Rasmussen Reports Consumer Spending Update shows confidence in the economy trending upward - with an amazing 25-point overall increase in economic confidence and a 26-point increase in confidence in the direction of the economy since the 2016 presidential elections.

#1 wealth accumulator in America is to own real property!

What does this mean for interest rates?  Are they REALLY on the way up like everyone is talking about? 

Because the economic cycle predicts what will happen with interest rates relative to growth of wages, consumer confidence, Wholesale price escalation, etc., we have data which supports what will be happening in the future of the mortgage industry in 2017. 

Okay, so what is going to happen? 

As consumer confidence increases, our economy is expanding and workers (consumers) will buy more products, increasing demand which at a certain point, creates inflationary pressure (From our old days in Econ 101-Demand and Supply lecture). 

Mortgage bonds HATE inflation!  So, If bond prices go down, because they don't like inflation, rates go up.  Really, from my vantage point and from what I read from experts that are a whole lot smarter than I am, it's just a matter of time before the rates go up. 

Then you might be wondering by how much will the rates be increasing?  That's for another post. 

But for now? Our rates continue to hover at historic lows.  Great news for purchasing, building and refinancing.  

Thanks for liking my Facebook Business page! 

It can be found by clicking here:

"Mortgages With Marty" Facebook Page

Thanks for telling your friends and family about me! 

I look forward to helping with mortgage questions and needs! 

Marty  801-540-5108

Rents are going through the roof!

Rent costs are rising quickly!

Single family rentals account for 13% of the overall housing stock (up from 9% in 2005) and rents are heating up!  Rents are higher than they should be given the underlying real estate values. 

As a result of the higher cost of rent relative to overall household income, first time home buyer's who have now entered the market (first time home buyer home purchases are the highest this year since 2009) are discovering the value of purchasing rather than renting. 

With appreciation in home values ticking along at 4% per year nationally (and regionally 6-8% and higher in some hot selling neighborhoods), coupled with historically low interest rates, and home financing is once again available to home buyer's with good credit, reasonable debt obligations and little or no down payment. 

Purchase a home today because all the stars are lining up!

With after tax rates for home financing in the 3% range, home buyer's today are using their home purchase as a financial leveraging tool and will payoff debt that has a higher interest rate, like credit cards, student loans, department store cards and car loans, and paying off their mortgage LAST.


If a home purchase can again be viewed as an investment (steady appreciation) and as a financial leverage tool (payoff higher interest rate debt first and your mortgage last), the only thing we need to add to the equation is a beautiful house to buy for fun and financial success to begin!

Call Marty Qualls at 801-540-5108 for help with any of your mortgage questions.   

Lots of buyer activity for Q4, 2014

The fall months are no longer a real estate dead zone, and there is still plenty of action happening after Labor Day through Christmas.  An article in the October 18, 2014 Ogden Standard Examiner said that Davis County home sales were up 7% and Weber County were up 4% when compared to the same August time in 2013. Pending sales (homes under contract which will close in October) were up 22%, showing significant momentum for home sales as we enter into the beginning of Q4.  

By Brendon DeSimone on 26 Sep 2014

Fall officially began Sept. 23, but that doesn’t mean you should scrap plans for selling your home this year. In fact, October, November and December can actually be good months to sell. Now is the time to plan for it if you’ve even considered putting your home on the market.

American's see this as a great time to sell and buy a home!

Americans now believe it’s a good time to sell a house in their area, and most still consider buying one a good investment.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey (95% confidence level) finds that 36% of American Adults now say this is a good time for someone in their area to sell a home. That’s down eight points from last month’s high of 44% and back to the level seen in May. 

Still, it remains far more optimistic than Americans have been in most surveys since the spring of 2009. 

With the selling season in full swing this is a great time to consider selling your home and investing in a new home!    

2014 Housing Market Prediction From Freddie Mac

The U.S. housing market has made some great strides in 2013, but it’s facing a slowdown at the end of the year due to government dysfunction, a sputtering economy and imminent volatility over the next debt-ceiling debate, according to Freddie Mac’s latest U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook.




Although, getting a mortgage shouldn’t be affected by any potential market decline, the report stated.



If you’re looking to buy a home, now may be the best time in terms of mortgage rates. Freddie Mac estimates that 30-year-fixed loans will “hover around 4.3 percent” through the end of the year, and then begin heading higher in early 2014.

Janet Yellen is a great choice!

Janet Yellen, I like you!  signed Marty Qualls

Do you know Janet Yellen yet?  She's being backed as Ben Bernanke's replacement. 

She's known for promoting low mortgage interest rates (I like her already!), a slightly higher inflation rate (she likes inflation because it promotes job growth!), and higher spending for teachers (what? Teacher's should be paid more?  I REALLY like her more now and so does my wife, Valarie!). 

Read more about her here, I think she's a GREAT choice (and pretty rich too!):
Jenet Yellen's philosophy

Strong existing home sale numbers continue

Existing Home Sales reached a six-and-a half year peak in August, 13% higher than one year earlier. 

Existing home sales, including those of single family homes, townhomes, condominiums and coops, have remained above their year-ago levels for the past 26 months.

This news coupled with the Fed announcement 2 days ago that QE3 will continue until the economy shows more signs of stability, bodes well for home sale strength for the remainder of the year.  

Homeowners equity positions changing-More homes selling in the next 15 months

RealtyTrac has released its U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report for September 2013, which shows that while 10.7 million residential homeowners nationwide owe at least 25 percent or more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, another 8.3 million homeowners are either slightly underwater or slightly above water, putting them on track to have enough equity to sell sometime in the next 15 months—without resorting to a short sale. The 8.3 million include homeowners with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio from 90 to 110 percent, meaning they have between 10 percent positive equity and 10 percent negative equity. These homeowners represented 18 percent of all U.S. homeowners with a mortgage as of the beginning of September.

Hot Housing Market!

In Today’s Hot Housing Market, More Than 50% Of Homes Sell In Less Than One Month!

For the second straight month, Existing Home Sales topped 5 million monthly on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis. That hasn't happened in 6 years.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR)  reports just 2.19 million homes for sale nationwide at the end of June, an 8% decrease from one year ago. At the current rate of sales, the entire stock of U.S. homes for sale would be "sold out" before the New Year -- there's just 5.2 months of inventory.

This is a big deal because analysts believe that a 6.0-month supply of homes represents a market in balance between buyers and sellers.When supply dips below six months, sellers gain leverage over buyers which, in turn, can push home prices higher.

Home supply has favored sellers since September 2012. Not surprisingly, home values since last year.

The June report showed the median Days on Market for homes sold in June dropped to 37 days. More than half of all homes sold in less than a month.
To put this "speed" in perspective, compare the last three years :

• June 2010 : Median 97 Days on Market 
• June 2011 : Median 70 Days on Market 
• June 2012 : Median 37 Days on Market 

Furthermore, if we remove foreclosure and short sales, the median Days on Market in June drops to thirty-five days.

Homes are selling quickly these days. Purchase-ready purchasers appear to have a better chance to going to contract than buyers without a plan or pre-approval letter (Call me, I can help you with your questions, options and your credit approval letter). 

This is what happens when the number of buyers outnumbers the sellers.

Home Ownership Increases Dramatically: 20 year snapshot

HUD tells us that at the end of 1991, there were roughly 60 million families that owned a home and 33 million families that rented a home or an apartment. 

At the end of 2011 (i.e., 20 years later and the most recent year for which data is available), there were 76 million families that owned a home (+27%) and 39 million families that rented (+16%). 

HUD also tells us that 3 out of every 4 American households added in the last 2 decades were homeowners as opposed to renters.