The Squeeze Play is ON! The falling trend line I have been tracking for the past 4 days is now in a triangle formation with the 200 day moving average and current Bond Prices. For today, after my alert to lock yesterday at midday, I am recommending Floating as we see how the Bond Chart Pricing struggle continues to form. Bonds will break our from this formation one way or the other, up or down, rather than stay at the 200 day moving average which is where Bonds have been touching for the past 14 business trading days.
After the past few days of significant losses, Stocks are attempting to recover and Bonds will be taking direction from Stocks and from the triangle pricing struggle mentioned above.
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Friday, November 21, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Rate Watch 11/20/08: Float to Lock
Bonds started out better this morning, but worsened, and at 1:00 I issued an alert to Lock Advice. Bonds continue to touch the 200 day moving average for the 13th consecutive day.
HERE is the BIG news of the day! The October Fed Meeting Minutes were released yesterday. The Fed has expressed concern about deflation. The "D" word.
Deflation is when prices drop, mainly due to decreases in money supply and credit. In a deflationary environment, investors flee into fixed instruments, like Bonds. Going back to the Spring of 2003, Alan Greenspan uttered the "D" word. Mortgage Bonds rallied 400 basis points in a couple of weeks, setting off an unprecedented refi-boom.
It will take investors waking up to the bargain value of Mortgage Bonds for the rally to begin. I want to let everyone know that we may be on the verge of the refi Boom which I know you have been waiting for. Things are MUCH different now than they were in 2003, but I am watching this VERY closely!
Prices have barely peaked above the 200 day moving average. And here is a quick reminder about 2003: When Alan Greenspan came back and later said there is NO threat of deflation-the refi-boom ended Qucikly and rates shot up dramatically (1% higher in 4 days-I was there, I lived it, I saw it!). Stay tuned, we are living history again!
Be ready for my call to you to alert you on dramatic drops in rates to take advantage of!
When it happens, we may have a SMALL window of opportunity to take advantage of!
HERE is the BIG news of the day! The October Fed Meeting Minutes were released yesterday. The Fed has expressed concern about deflation. The "D" word.
Deflation is when prices drop, mainly due to decreases in money supply and credit. In a deflationary environment, investors flee into fixed instruments, like Bonds. Going back to the Spring of 2003, Alan Greenspan uttered the "D" word. Mortgage Bonds rallied 400 basis points in a couple of weeks, setting off an unprecedented refi-boom.
It will take investors waking up to the bargain value of Mortgage Bonds for the rally to begin. I want to let everyone know that we may be on the verge of the refi Boom which I know you have been waiting for. Things are MUCH different now than they were in 2003, but I am watching this VERY closely!
Prices have barely peaked above the 200 day moving average. And here is a quick reminder about 2003: When Alan Greenspan came back and later said there is NO threat of deflation-the refi-boom ended Qucikly and rates shot up dramatically (1% higher in 4 days-I was there, I lived it, I saw it!). Stay tuned, we are living history again!
Be ready for my call to you to alert you on dramatic drops in rates to take advantage of!
When it happens, we may have a SMALL window of opportunity to take advantage of!
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Rate Watch 11/19/08: Floating
Bonds continue to trade at, just slightly below, and just slightly above the 200 day moving average for the 11th straight day. For now, I recommend floating to see which way the market breaks and will alwert you when this happens.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Rate Watch 11/18/08: Carefully Floating
Bond Prices are continuing to trade at the 200 day moving average for the 10th trading session. I am watching for a break above or below this level and will let you know when this happens. A move upward would signal lower mortgage rates, but if we drop convincingly below this level, we could see a wild sell off as we have experienced many times this year.
For now, Stocks are reacting favorably to the Hewlett Packard announcement that they are beating income projections for the 4th quarter and for the year. Finally, some good news from a big name company!
Overall inflation on the Wholesale level was released and the decrease was the largest since records started to be kept in 1947 (this was helped by the 25% decline in oil prices). This is good news for Bonds, which hates inflation. I will keep you posted as to the movement in the markets!
For now, Stocks are reacting favorably to the Hewlett Packard announcement that they are beating income projections for the 4th quarter and for the year. Finally, some good news from a big name company!
Overall inflation on the Wholesale level was released and the decrease was the largest since records started to be kept in 1947 (this was helped by the 25% decline in oil prices). This is good news for Bonds, which hates inflation. I will keep you posted as to the movement in the markets!
Monday, November 17, 2008
Rate Watch 11/17/08: Floating
For the 9th trading session, Bond prices are dancing around the 200 day moving average. With the release of many key reports on inflation (tomorrow), and economic activity (today and tomorrow), I will be watching the market closely for movement above and below this important ceiling of support .
Bond Chart Education Moment: When the 200 day moving average is above current pricing, it is a CEILING. As the Bond prices convincingly break above (through) this level of resistance, we will see improved Bond prices and LOWER bond yields and LOWER Mortgage Rates. Of course, the opposite also holds true: a break convincingly BELOW this 200 day average will result in HIGHER mortgage rates (Bond prices LOWER, Yield HIGHER and Mortgage Rates HIGHER).
The bond movement at, above, and below, the 200 day moving average is what I will be watching for, and giving you advice on, over this next 2-3 days.
Bond Chart Education Moment: When the 200 day moving average is above current pricing, it is a CEILING. As the Bond prices convincingly break above (through) this level of resistance, we will see improved Bond prices and LOWER bond yields and LOWER Mortgage Rates. Of course, the opposite also holds true: a break convincingly BELOW this 200 day average will result in HIGHER mortgage rates (Bond prices LOWER, Yield HIGHER and Mortgage Rates HIGHER).
The bond movement at, above, and below, the 200 day moving average is what I will be watching for, and giving you advice on, over this next 2-3 days.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Realtor Thank You
"Marty and his staff did an exceptional job in completing this loan from qualifying to funding (for an FHA payoff) in record time. I appreciate the great service!" Judy Webber
Realtor Thank You
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"Marty is the Best! Highest ratings on every aspect of getting a loan with Marty and especially loved the over the top personalized service!" Craig and Heidi Hansen, LN#992604
Buyer Thank You
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Buyer Thank You
"Marty was Friendly and Always kept us informed! We did meet our closing date and Marty kep us informed on the status of our loan!" Mauel DelRio and Leticia Saucedo LN#992804
Buyer Thank You
"We would of course recommend you to others! Great Service and great people to work with!" Owen and Lisa Thompson, Ln#991705
Buyer Thank You
"We closed in record time! Marty was friendly and went out of his way to make sure our loan closed on time; kept us informed and up to date; made us feel good! :)" Steven and Danielle Franks
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